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COVID-19 Update
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Al Czervik
2020-07-16 18:23:59 UTC
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Criticized for refusing to lock down, Sweden’s top health official says
herd immunity is inevitable and took credit for the slowing of
coronavirus numbers.

“According to our modelers, we are starting to see so many immune people
in the population in Stockholm that it is starting to have an effect on
the spread of the infection,” Anders Tegnell, who led the charge to keep
Sweden open, told local media.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sweden-claims-coronavirus-success-after-keeping-country-open-says-herd-immunity-imminent/ar-BB12T5Rt?
Byker
2020-07-17 01:32:24 UTC
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Post by Al Czervik
Criticized for refusing to lock down, Sweden’s top health official says
herd immunity is inevitable and took credit for the slowing of coronavirus
numbers.
“According to our modelers, we are starting to see so many immune people
in the population in Stockholm that it is starting to have an effect on
the spread of the infection,” Anders Tegnell, who led the charge to keep
Sweden open, told local media.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sweden-claims-coronavirus-success-after-keeping-country-open-says-herd-immunity-imminent/ar-BB12T5Rt?
Oh? This doesn't sound like "herd immunity" to me:

https://fortune.com/2020/07/16/sweden-covid-strategy-herd-immunity-elusive/

https://daily.jstor.org/herd-immunity-wont-solve-covid-19-problem/
Al Czervik
2020-07-17 20:24:51 UTC
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Post by Byker
Post by Al Czervik
Criticized for refusing to lock down, Sweden’s top health official says
herd immunity is inevitable and took credit for the slowing of coronavirus
numbers.
“According to our modelers, we are starting to see so many immune people
in the population in Stockholm that it is starting to have an effect on
the spread of the infection,” Anders Tegnell, who led the charge to keep
Sweden open, told local media.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sweden-claims-coronavirus-success-after-keeping-country-open-says-herd-immunity-imminent/ar-BB12T5Rt?
https://fortune.com/2020/07/16/sweden-covid-strategy-herd-immunity-elusive/
That's what it looks like - the natural progression of a disease until
significant population (the herd) is immune and the virus doesn't have
anywhere to go. This mistake Sweden made (and many of our states made as
well), hindsight being 20:20, is that they didn't isolate their
vulnerable. The mistake we are making right now is that we aren't
allowing our healthy, those under 40 and those under 60 without
comorbidity to get infected. The result is that the disease is going to
simmer in the background into 2021-22 flu season. The mistake we are
going to make in the fall is not opening our schools.
Walt In Seattle
2020-07-18 01:17:59 UTC
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Once more, in the hope it will sink in this time, there may be no such thing as "herd immunity" for COVID-19. It's a coronavirus and coronaviruses typically are defended against by the immune system for no more than a few months, if THAT long. Here is a study that indicates such is likely with/for COVID-19.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1.full.pdf

Will you read it and try to understand it or just ignore it?

The best example of a coronavirus for which there is a short span of immunity is the common cold. You've been told this, Al, on more than one occasion, and now once again. Yet, you continue with the "herd immunity" premise as if herd immunity is assured if everyone who is young plus healthy simply gets sick or infected but possibly remains asymptomatic, gets it over with and, as you would put it, gives the virus no place to go. It ISN'T that simplle!

Again, in case you've forgotten:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766097
________________________________________
[...] In the absence of effective treatment or biomedical prevention, efforts to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have relied on nonpharmaceutical interventions such as personal preventive actions (eg, handwashing, face covers), environmental cleaning, physical distancing, stay-at-home orders, school and venue closures, and workplace restrictions adopted at the national, state, and local levels. In addition to these public health interventions, development of herd immunity could also provide a defense against COVID-19. However, whether immunity occurs among individuals after they have recovered from COVID-19 is uncertain. Many human infections with other viral pathogens, such as influenza virus, do not produce a durable immune response. Understanding whether and how recovery from COVID-19 confers immunity to, or decreased severity of, reinfection is needed to inform current efforts to safely scale back population-based interventions, such as physical distancing. Understanding potential postinfection immunity also has important implications for epidemiologic assessments (eg, population susceptibility, transmission modeling), serologic therapies (eg, convalescent plasma), and vaccines. [...]
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/dr-anthony-fauci-says-theres-a-chance-coronavirus-vaccine-may-not-provide-immunity-for-very-long.html
________________________________________
[...] White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said he worries about the "durability" of a potential coronavirus vaccine, saying there's a chance it may not provide long-term immunity. [...]
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You argue from the assumption that, if people over 60 are sequestered in their bunker of imprisonment, for however long it would take, those under 60 or 50 could do what they want when they want; no problems to be had. Have you noticed that, in Florida, Texas and Arizona there are now a lot of forty and fifty-somethings in hospitals? Did you notice that the U.K.'s Prime Minister, in his mid-fifties, had to be hospitalized with COVID-19? Most in their 40s or 50s who are hospitalized will probably survive. But let's not pretend their experience while there won't be traumatic. Given evidence now surfacing that the infllammation which comes with COVID-19 is causing damage to vital organs, potentially for the rest of the patient's life, including damage to the brain, this is NOT a matter where the elderly can be safely locked away while others won't suffer and suffer greately!

Even if it were possible or likely that herd immunity could be achieved naturally, it would take longer than the "6 months" you've previously stated, as if that's likely. In Sweden, they are, for the most part, letting it all hang out, so to write. It has been nearly 6 months and they're not in the same galaxy as "herd immunity"!

As for schoolchildren: I accept they need to go back to school and for more reason than making it possible for Mom & Dad to go back to work. The psychological impact on kids -- their amplified fear of COVID-19 and the specter of pandemics to follow -- could be signifant and life-altering for those so early in the process of socialization. Yes; most of them will not suffer much physically. Some won't suffer at all. But this is NOT *JUST* about THEM. It's also about aging parents or grandparents living in the same home with those children as well as school staff and particularly teachers who are in their 40s, 50s or 60s. They all deserve some consideration. Only in Fantasyland could schools be staffed or REstaffed exclusively with twenty and thirty-somethigns by August or September. Only in Fantasyland, where it's not necessary for midde-aged adults with children to bring THEIR aging parents into the home because no one can afford to send those elderly parents -- the children's grandparents -- to some facility or place where they will be well-cared-for, can we expect that children, when they come home, are not likely to spread COVID-19 to the "vulnerable". But you already knews this, didn't you, Al?
Al Czervik
2020-07-18 20:41:31 UTC
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Post by Walt In Seattle
Once more, in the hope it will sink in this time, there may be no such thing as "herd immunity" for COVID-19. It's a coronavirus and coronaviruses typically are defended against by the immune system for no more than a few months, if THAT long. Here is a study that indicates such is likely with/for COVID-19.
Trust the known science. Trust the fact that there are people out there
who are asymptomatic. Why? Because they have antibodies that fight the
infection. Trust the stats that only the elderly and those with
comorbidities, those with weakened immune systems, are the ones getting
hit by this virus.

Please consider the ramifications of what you are saying... That we can
only be immune for a "few months." This means a vaccine would be
useless. It means there is no need for the virus to mutate for it to
survive. It means the virus could go from China to Italy, to New York,
to LA and when it returns to China it will reinfect those there. Please
understand that if this were the case all of humanity will eventually
succumb to it.

Please, engage critical thinking.
--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
Al Czervik
2020-07-21 18:47:08 UTC
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Post by Walt In Seattle
Once more, in the hope it will sink in this time, there may be no such thing as "herd immunity" for COVID-19. It's a coronavirus and coronaviruses typically are defended against by the immune system for no more than a few months, if THAT long. Here is a study that indicates such is likely with/for COVID-19.
This is simply *NOT* true and is denying existing science that human
beings have immune systems. If it were true there is *NO* point in
developing a vaccine if it only works for a couple months. If this were
true we'd be reinfected by a corona virus *ALL THE TIME*, we'd be sick
*ALL THE TIME* and eventually we'd die because of it. It would
annihilate the human race.

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/herd-immunity-and-covid-19-what-you-need-to-know/

You can find crap out there on the internet that support your belief
system - whether it's Rush Limbaugh, Rachel Maddow or
chicken-little-covid. That's why I'm asking you to engage critical
thinking and rely on the science you know.
Walt In Seattle
2020-07-22 00:26:50 UTC
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You're STILL *FULL* of *IT*, Al!

I've never claimed there is no such thing as herd immunity or immunity as a concept. I HAVE noted and provided information on multiple occasions as to whether herd immunity will be possible FOR COVID-19. If you don't get it and if you don't get Tony Fauci, JAMA, the Oxford study, the cases where reinfection has occurred or is suspected.... See: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255905/ and https://www.physiciansweekly.com/risk-for-covid-19-reinfection-remains-unknown/ .... and so on, then you don't get it. End of story.

The content from your link indicates there are two paths to immunity -- vaccine or infection. However, it does not address the issue of "durable immunity" -- whether it's possible for a coronavirus in general or COVID-19 in particular -- and thus, that article is, at best, INCOMPLETE and, at worst, misleading. But you know all about misleading, don't you, Al?

When you have news of natural herd immunity or a vaccine for the common cold -- a coronavirus from which those who have been infected develop immunity that lasts, at best, a few months -- let us know. Since COVID-19 is a "novel" coronavirus and if one or one of or some of the vaccine candidates are remarkably good at reinforcing T-cells in such way that their ability to recoognize and remove COVID-19 lasts more than a few months, that would be great. But will that happen?

There is far from any guarantee any of those vaccine candidates will provide "durable immunity". No one should assume they will. If natural production of antibodies and the ability of T-cells to recognize COVID-19 lasts only a few months, then depending on natural herd immunity could be depending on a fantasy.

Of course, COVID-19 could do many things as time pases. It could fade away, as did SARS. It could become far worse than it is and, if there is major mutation, vaccines now in the pipeline could be useless. There are lots of scenarios for which there is not enough time to address in this post. But expecting a particular scenario, including the demise of COVID-19 in the near future by way of herd immunity, is far from realistic.
Al Czervik
2020-07-22 23:35:20 UTC
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Post by Walt In Seattle
You're STILL *FULL* of *IT*, Al!
I've never claimed there is no such thing as herd immunity or immunity as a concept. I HAVE noted and provided information on multiple occasions as to whether herd immunity will be possible FOR COVID-19.
Let's try a different tact. Name a viral infection where it is proven we
cannot achieve herd immunity, right...

...Here---->

There are some diseases that are so deadly herd immunity is never
achieved because nearly everyone dies and the virus runs out of hosts,
yet those who do live are now immune.
Post by Walt In Seattle
If you don't get it and if you don't get Tony Fauci, JAMA, the Oxford
study, the cases where reinfection has occurred or is suspected

Fauci was asked this very question. He said it was not "reinfection"
rather "reactivation" and told the questioner to be very careful in what
he was saying:
https://www.newsweek.com/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-reactivation-get-it-twice-immunity-1497246
Post by Walt In Seattle
When you have news of natural herd immunity or a vaccine for the common cold
Once again. You do not catch the same cold over and over again. You
catch a different cold.

-- a coronavirus from which those who have been infected develop
immunity that lasts, at best, a few months -- let us know. Since
COVID-19 is a "novel" coronavirus and if one or one of or some of the
vaccine candidates are remarkably good at reinforcing T-cells in such
way that their ability to recoognize and remove COVID-19 lasts more than
a few months, that would be great. But will that happen?
Post by Walt In Seattle
There is far from any guarantee any of those vaccine candidates will provide "durable immunity". No one should assume they will. If natural production of antibodies and the ability of T-cells to recognize COVID-19 lasts only a few months, then depending on natural herd immunity could be depending on a fantasy.
And this is the "novel" death to humanity scenario if you believe that
throughout the ages our bodies have never been attacked by anything like
this before.
Post by Walt In Seattle
Of course, COVID-19 could do many things as time pases. It could fade away, as did SARS.
What the fuck does that mean? It gets a pension and retires? Wonders out
into the woods and gets lost? Finds that it's funner to chill with Willy
Nelson? "Fade away"? Yea... That's a technical term.

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