Walt In Seattle
2020-07-10 02:22:25 UTC
The bottom line for President Trump is that NO ONE will see his financial records this year. After Election Day in November, assuming COVID-19 does not prevent Election Day, it won't much matter to Trump, if it will matter at all, in terms of re-election. For now, this is reason enough for Donald Trump to celebrate.
In the next few years, especially if Trump wins re-election, and he might according to a certain successful predictive method and a certain Stony Brook provessor, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls there's still time and opportuntity to fight another day. With the help of William Barr and/or the Solicitor General, Trump might argue and win on the premise that neither a House of Representatives controlled by Democrats or New York state officials act with clean hands.
Litigating the separation of powers issue could consume the entirety of Trump's second term. This would be OK with Trump and, if Trump's financial records would reveal that Trump has not been as successful in business as he has claimed, such would harm the legacy he hoped to build. But impeachment has already pierced that bubble and there may be no political ramifications from that outcome, particularly if it does not arrive until AFTER Trump leaves office. Yet, even if it happens before his second term is done, he could survive it.
In the event there is evidence of criminal activity, the revelation of it could be politically devastating. For that reason, Trump will fight hard to block it. Again, he'll have time and opportunity. If he loses while in office, prosecution on federal charges will not happen until he leave office. The same may be true for state prosecution. On federal crimes, Trump would have to campaign hard for Pence or a close ally as Trump's successor from whom Trump would expect a preemptive pardon not unlike that which President Ford provided for President Nixon. However, protracted litigation in both cases may run out the clock on a House of Representatives controlled by Democrats and a state in dire need of federal funding for important programs a Trump-friendly U.S. Senate would block if New York attempts to push its case as far as it can.
Where Trump may be in serious trouble is if (a) he loses re-election or (B) Democrats sweep both the House and Senate this Fall if not (c) Trump winning re-election (if he doesn't find a way to steal it) while the Senate and House are swept by Democrats. But realistically, I don't see Republicans losing the Senate, although they may just BARELY hold a majority in the Senate.
If Trump somehow loses re-election, I expect him to do two things: (1) challenge the results while litigating down to the last hanging chad and mail-in ballot; (2) initiate a blitzskrieg of retribution against his enemies. Retribution will continue through the day he leaves office. Once he is out of office, he will stir a pot of discontent and conspiracy theories among his supporters, and he won't care how close this activity comes to violence and insurrection. He'll only feel cheated and intending to make people pay a price for what he lost. So, yes; I doubt this ends when or if Trump leaves the White House for the last time in January 2021.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/trump-taxes-supreme-court.html
In the next few years, especially if Trump wins re-election, and he might according to a certain successful predictive method and a certain Stony Brook provessor, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls there's still time and opportuntity to fight another day. With the help of William Barr and/or the Solicitor General, Trump might argue and win on the premise that neither a House of Representatives controlled by Democrats or New York state officials act with clean hands.
Litigating the separation of powers issue could consume the entirety of Trump's second term. This would be OK with Trump and, if Trump's financial records would reveal that Trump has not been as successful in business as he has claimed, such would harm the legacy he hoped to build. But impeachment has already pierced that bubble and there may be no political ramifications from that outcome, particularly if it does not arrive until AFTER Trump leaves office. Yet, even if it happens before his second term is done, he could survive it.
In the event there is evidence of criminal activity, the revelation of it could be politically devastating. For that reason, Trump will fight hard to block it. Again, he'll have time and opportunity. If he loses while in office, prosecution on federal charges will not happen until he leave office. The same may be true for state prosecution. On federal crimes, Trump would have to campaign hard for Pence or a close ally as Trump's successor from whom Trump would expect a preemptive pardon not unlike that which President Ford provided for President Nixon. However, protracted litigation in both cases may run out the clock on a House of Representatives controlled by Democrats and a state in dire need of federal funding for important programs a Trump-friendly U.S. Senate would block if New York attempts to push its case as far as it can.
Where Trump may be in serious trouble is if (a) he loses re-election or (B) Democrats sweep both the House and Senate this Fall if not (c) Trump winning re-election (if he doesn't find a way to steal it) while the Senate and House are swept by Democrats. But realistically, I don't see Republicans losing the Senate, although they may just BARELY hold a majority in the Senate.
If Trump somehow loses re-election, I expect him to do two things: (1) challenge the results while litigating down to the last hanging chad and mail-in ballot; (2) initiate a blitzskrieg of retribution against his enemies. Retribution will continue through the day he leaves office. Once he is out of office, he will stir a pot of discontent and conspiracy theories among his supporters, and he won't care how close this activity comes to violence and insurrection. He'll only feel cheated and intending to make people pay a price for what he lost. So, yes; I doubt this ends when or if Trump leaves the White House for the last time in January 2021.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/trump-taxes-supreme-court.html